Extensive details are at Project Alpine Fault 8. Granite mountains would stay more intact. Geologists don’t appear to be spooked by Mr Ring’s predictions. 15 May 2018. The Alpine Fault is overdue for an earthquake that could reshape the South Island, scientists say. It’s the Alpine Fault, which runs for hundreds of km down the length of New Zealand South Island. The … "There will be a similar earthquake soon... Whatever we can learn about this fault and how it moves is, to some extent, helping us understand and prepare for the next great earthquake.". Wouldn’t want to be below in a big earthquake. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. The research has important earthquake hazard implications nationally by providing a much longer record and therefore a more reliable forecast of when the next major earthquake will occur on the southern section of the Alpine Fault. They obtain a good fit to the data but their preferred model dip for the Alpine Fault is not as steep as that observed in the field. The videos are intended to both warn and educate our community about the overdue Alpine Fault earthquake which is expected to be in the magnitude 8 range. Your comment on climate change goes well with your first comment on this thread. A very badly made mountain. South Island plan for the next Alpine Fault quake. I guess sooner or later they will get something right, I am hoping its the report I saw last week about going into a cooling period because of the rapid decline in sun activity then I can sit in my armchair in 40 years time look back and chuckle. Last year marked the 300th anniversary of the last time it ruptured, moving the south-eastern side about eight metres relative to the north-western side in a matter of seconds. The South Island's Alpine Fault is overdue for a massive earthquake. And being on the boundary of the Pacific and Australia tectonic plates, it will happen again. Ten years ago, scientists only had evidence for three separate quakes on the fault - now they have seven recorded at multiple sites along the fault, and 27 in individual stretches. The last time this happened was 301 years ago. Nature Geoscience, 2018; 12 (1): 69 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-018-0272-8 Bertrand Rouet-Leduc, Claudia Hulbert, Paul A. Johnson. Image: The Alpine fault runs to the east (left) of the snowcapped ridge of the South Island alps. Threat of quake in alps wanes. An Alpine Fault earthquake will likely rupture a larger fault length (several hundreds of kilometres rather than several tens of kilometres) over a longer period of time (100s of seconds rather than tens of seconds) and affect a much larger area than the Darfield earthquake. (2018) present a dense GPS velocity field along with models of Alpine Fault dip and a possible structure taking up motion east of the Alpine Fault. "The intrigue of this earthquake arises from the gradual unveiling of multiple lines of research that have come together to consolidate our understanding of what took place in 1717 AD," the journal said in a statement. The last rupture was believed to have happened in 1717. The last time was in 1717. Project Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8) released a series of videos on Wednesday, warning there’s compelling geological evidence to show it produces a significant earthquake of magnitude eight or greater every 300 years on average. Change ). In the News | Published: 11 September 2018 11 February 2019. Gee mention climate change and Griff appears out of nowhere armed with pretty charts albeit meaningless ones but I appreciate the effort. The big landslide under the viaduct at Arthurs Pass came down 2000 years ago. "Although Aotearoa New Zealand had been settled by Māori for about half a millennium when the earthquake occurred, oral histories of the event are rare. Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account. The Alpine Fault is the biggest but just one of many fault lines affecting New Zealand. At the southern end of the Alpine Fault, Page et al. Possibly one feature of our risk is that the Pacific plate is schist to greywache (further from the fault). The Alpine Fault has a long history of generating large earthquakes, with 27 previous earthquake events in … A 2018 study says that a significant rupture in the Alpine Fault could lead to roads (particularly in or to the West Coast) being blocked for months, as with the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, with problems in supplying towns and evacuating tourists. Credits: Newshub. There are contributions from scientists at GNS Science, the Universities of Victoria, Canterbury and Otago, and from overseas. Alpine OCTs could then have accommodated compression in several distinct ways ... of Benioff-type intra-oceanic subduction initiation showing foundering of an older oceanic slab at a transform fault, leading to upper-plate extension, formation of supra–subduction zone–affinity oceanic crust, and arc magmatism (after Ishizuka et al., 2018). The Alpine Fault runs almost the entire length of the South Island. Lets just pretend scary things cant happen so Dave will not get frightened to much ….EH. The story is told instead by trees, sediments, and the landscape of the South Island's West Coast.". Stuff has the latest information on this: Videos show devastating impact across South Island if Alpine Fault ruptures. The Alpine Fault is overdue for an earthquake that could reshape the South Island, scientists say. Journalists get bored with climate alarmism tertorism and asteroid catastrophes. Oct 15,2018 The organisation responsible for planning our response to the forecast Alpine Fault earthquake has released a detailed new South Island-wide strategy and explanatory video. Movement along this fault has uplifted the Southern Alps and produced large earthquakes. The Alpine Fault is where two great tectonic plates (the Pacific and Australian) plates collide. This is a few years old but is a good look at plate tectonics in New Zealand: Dunedin is about as far as you can get in the South Island from the fault but when the big one strikes it is certain to be felt here (we feel larger Fiordland earthquakes as well as the bigger Christchurch quakes) and it is likely to have  major effects across the South Island, and also in the lower North Island. Alpine Fault quake expected NZASE article 2019 Scientists estimate a 30 percent likelihood in the next 50 years of a magnitude 8 or higher (M8+) earth- quake along 400km of the Alpine Fault, a strength about three times greater than the 7.8 Kaikoura quake in 2016. Courtesy of New Zealand Geographic Board Ngā Pou Taunaha o Aotearoa. Bugger being a train driver on the Midland line. You can learn more about the AF8 project here. Tuesday 11 September 2018 3:12pm. Date: 2012 Description: Scientists at GNS Science say Alpine Fault may not generate an 8.0 magnitude quake for another 200 years. Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. “Within 500kms” reaches as far up the North Island as Hamilton. Video simulations demonstrate widespread destruction across the South Island if New Zealand’s most dangerous fault line ruptures, and there’s evidence the country is due for another big one. It is a dominant feature of the South Island. Experts predicting this will have a 30%+chance of going in the next 50 years. Pretty well everywhere in NZ will feel it if there’s a large rupture I’ve read – & you can bet Welly will get whacked hard. Related Articles. Erosion rates in the hanging wall of the Alpine Fault are high, keeping pace with rock uplift over time frames of 10⁴–10⁶ years. I wish they would shut up with their predictions, they are unsettling given what we lived through but at the end of the day they are nothing more than a mathematical equation. You are wasting your time Griff the whole thing is a massive hoax, I have dumped my solar and stocks and investing in thermals and stockpiling vitamin D tablets and looking forward to ice skating across the Thames like my ancestors. View large Download slide. The Alpine Fault is a 800-long plate boundary fault that runs down the western side of the Southern Alps, and presents a significant seismic hazard for New Zealand. Project Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8) released a series of videos on Wednesday, warning there’s compelling geological evidence to show it produces a significant earthquake of magnitude eight or greater every 300 years on average. If we confine ourselves geographically to a particular fault or collection of faults, there are two specific timeframes over which a bona fide prediction would be actionable, giving us the chance to meaningfully act to mitigate the worst of the damage and devastation. Deluded Dave. I know actually finding out about reality gives you RWNJ’s cognitive dissonance so I did not bother. The Alpine Fault ruptures in a massive earthquake every 300 years, on average, and the last big one was in 1717. The fault line along the South Island ruptures roughly every 300 years. That quake measured an approximate magnitude 8.1, making it about three times stronger than the Kaikoura quake of 2016. Share on Twitter; Share on Facebook; Share via email; Share on Reddit; Share on Linked In ; Georgina McLean, Senior Digital Journalist. When I was woken up by an earthquake in the middle of the night on 4 September 2010 I wondered if it was ‘the big one’ – it was big enough but that was centred close to Christchurch. 3 Appendix 1, WCRC Natural Hazards Resource Kit, Revised February 2012, M Trayes The Alpine Fault. It collapsed some of the far stream bank which had been sodden with rain & recently butchered by council workers. That was despite scientists warning that the ground some buildings sit on could be displaced 8m horizontally – and 1.5m vertically – in the next Alpine Fault quake. An Alpine Fault earthquake will be felt by every South Islander and likely many North Islanders, too. Submitted August 15, 2018, SCEC Contribution #8809, 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #038 New Zealand’s Alpine Fault is perhaps the world’s best example of a relatively simple, hypermature, active continental plate boundary transform. Generally the fault has a simple straight trace, striking ca. They were able to narrow down the timing of the last big one to 1717 by looking at tree ring patterns. Dr Caroline Orchiston. The West Coast. Yess Dave science is a hoax. It has ruptured four times in the last 900 years, resulting in earthquakes of around magnitude 8, and is now considered highly probable to go again in the next 50 years. Change ), You are commenting using your Twitter account. The first four videos are shorter, and the next four are more detailed and longer format. May 16,2018; Here is the complete series of videos which have been produced by the AF8 Project. The alpine fault earthquake will alter tectonic stress distribution, and other faultlines may rupture in the days or years following it. The last rupture was believed to have happened in 1717. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. One is short – days to weeks. Results of the DFDP-2B drilling revealed high temperatures adjacent to the Alpine Fault: much hotter than predicted. From News Extras. … I could give you the papers behind the chart and a few more links . Crux has published the media release below and a link to the full document but we recommend that you watch the introductory video first. "The surprises and insights we gained from witnessing a major surface-rupturing earthquake in modern times have made us even more motivated to compile and present current research on the Alpine Fault. It’s about 30 years past the ‘average’ period of time in which a major 7.8-8.0 quake occurs. This image clearly shows the fault running up the West Coast, where the Australian plate dives under and drives up the Southern Alps which line along the rising edge of the Pacific Plate. Plato’s Theory of Forms similar Torres Islanders’ beliefs, A Christian reconsiders the Resurrection of Christ, Science versus ‘populist voice’ on criminal justice, Little change in latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll, Claim that Peters was briefed on NZ First Foundation operations, Long campaign but still a fairly predictable outcome, Locked Up in New Zealand - Days of Covid-19 Lockdown — Estralians. The Structural Geology of the Alpine Fault . No Dave if the sun goes quite we expect temperatures to keep increasing . The New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics has published a special issue on the Alpine Fault, which runs the length of the South Island. Here, it was like sitting on an overloaded washing machine on the spin cycle. on Haast and spreading north to Ahaura. The Alpine Fault runs 400km up the South Island, along the western edge of the Southern Alps. Climate changes..meh.. who cares its been happening since time started and here we are richer and healthier than ever. Same thing happened with the Kaikoura quakes, but I kept refreshing the page every minute – never seen anything like it before. Reply. What if the big one however many years ago settled the thing for eons and took most of the pressure out ? Date: 2018 Description: A magnitude 8 earthquake on the Alpine Fault is predicted to happen during the lifetime of most New Zealanders alive today. Numerous experts say it will be the largest natural disaster of … Future Earthquake Predictions. The spine of the South Island’s most significant earthquake risk, the Alpine Fault, runs right through the Wakatipu. It last ruptured in 1717 and there is a big earthquake, on average, about every 300 years, but the times vary so there is thought to be about a 30% risk of the next ‘Big One’ in the next fifty years. Share this. Climbed Avalanche Peak track above Arthurs Pass a decade or two ago. 4. Eric Leigh-Pink says: 21 Feb 2018 at 10:31 AM. A big quake on the Alpine Fault could block South Island highways in more than 120 places and leave 10,000 people cut off, new research has estimated. The 300-year anniversary of the last time the Alpine Fault ruptured has been marked with a special issue of the New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics. The Alpine fault is under scrutiny at the moment with work underway to predict the next earthquake at the top of the South Island. Quakes were rippling up & down the Lower NI & Upper SI, back & forth – epicentred all over the show. 16th May 2019 - New Zealand Government delivers strategy for sustainable tourism growth. Continuous chatter of … "Intense shaking caused numerous large landslides, forest damage, and long-term changes to drainage and sedimentation patterns in the Southern Alps, across the coastal plain, and offshore," researchers said on Tuesday. The scientists, emergency planners and numerous agencies involved in preparing for a future Alpine Fault earthquake have modelled the impacts of a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault and highlighted the need for emergency agencies to work across boundaries during a future disaster, University of Otago research reveals. Free speech for those who don't threaten free speech, Medicinal Cannabis, Links and Information, ‘Governments need more history graduates’. In your deluded little world . The length of the rupture will be up to 400 km, eg. 27th June 2019 - New Tourism Minister appointed in New Zealand Cabinet reshuffle. The Alpine Fault forms part of the on-land Pacific-Australian plate boundary. Project AF8 or Alpine Fault Magni... From: Christchurch City Libraries. The Alpine Fault, which runs about 600km up the western side of the South Island between Milford Sound and Marlborough, poses one of the biggest natural threats to New Zealand - especially the West Coast, Canterbury and Otago. Earthquakes dont follow a particular time scale and saying something may happen in the next few hundred years is like saying I dont know what the hell I am talking about, they should join the treasury and just leave us alone. Why do people believe in a non-existent Abrahamic God? … georgina.mclean@rnz.co.nz. The geological record shows the Alpine Fault ruptures, on average, just under every 300 years. ( Log Out /  A massive earthquake on the South Island's Alpine Fault is predicted to shake Canterbury at a "much higher intensity" than previously thought, new research shows. Figure 4. Front page photograph: The Alpine Fault at Inchbonnie – Hohonus and Taramakau River looking east [L.Homer, GNS] M Trayes, Natural Hazards Analyst West Coast Regional Council February 20 12. Need a new fix. Would be surprised if it set several faults off here – the Cook & Welly are riddled with them. But. ( Log Out /  The earthquake will last for about two minutes. Geologically, this is a high probability. That sounds dramatically imminent, but the intervals have actually varied between 140 and 510 years, so it may or may not happen in our lifetimes. ", Copyright © 2020 MediaWorks TV - All Rights Reserved, By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Access and Privacy Policy. ( Log Out /  The special issue was due to coincide with the 300th anniversary, but research into the Kaikoura quake - one of the most complex ever recorded - took priority. When the Eastern face fell away from Mt Cook the underlying rock was described a “weetbix”. The last major earthquake on the Alpine Fault occurred 295 years ago. An earthquake felt across the lower South Island over the weekend has reignited calls to prepare for the big Alpine Fault quake. Scientists, working as part of Project Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8), have marked the end of their first two years of work planning and preparing for a severe magnitude eight earthquakes. It is known to produce magnitude 8 earthquakes approximately every 300 years. The global median temperature gradient in monitoring boreholes >500 m deep is 30°C/km, and only 1% of boreholes globally have a temperature gradient >80°C/km. Source: 1 NEWS . ( Log Out /  "The timing of the disturbance that caused [a] decline [in growth] can be narrowed down to taking place after the 1716 growing season and before the end of the 1717 growing season - ie, the earthquake occurred early in the year 1717 AD.". I am more a ban plastic bags, low emission cars, keep the rivers clean, recycle everything possible, hydro power sort of a guy. https://yournz.org/2018/05/17/big-alpine-fault-rupture-due-in-the-next-century-or-two/. I went straight on to Geonet when we felt the first big rock n roll from the first Sedden event series a couple of years back. The Alpine Fault is a big feature of South Island geography and seismic activity. Council workers quite we expect temperatures to keep increasing the next four are more detailed and longer.! Description: scientists at GNS Science say Alpine Fault: much hotter than predicted, but I kept refreshing Page. & recently butchered by council workers Ring patterns West Coast alpine fault prediction 2018 `` kept refreshing Page! For eons and took most of the far stream bank which had been sodden with rain & recently by! Striking ca, but I kept refreshing the Page every minute – never seen anything like it.! And here we are richer and healthier than ever great tectonic plates it. Every South Islander and likely many North Islanders, too ( further from the Fault ) is where great... The Fault line along the South Island over the show & forth – epicentred over. Erosion rates in the News | Published: 11 September 2018 11 February 2019 left of! Schist to greywache ( further from the Fault has uplifted the Southern end of South... Council workers Reserved, by subscribing you agree to our Terms of Access and Privacy Policy quake! The Page every minute – never seen anything like it before Fault quake don! One feature of our risk is that the Pacific and Australian ) plates collide major earthquake on the Midland.. Trayes the Alpine Fault is overdue for a massive earthquake every 300.... The on-land Pacific-Australian plate boundary council workers another 200 years so Dave will not get frightened to much.... Since time started and here we are richer and healthier than ever tertorism and asteroid catastrophes by email using Facebook. On this thread every minute – never seen anything like it before New Minister! And receive notifications of New Zealand Government delivers strategy for sustainable Tourism growth the far bank! Complete series of videos which have been produced by the AF8 project – never anything! Top of the snowcapped ridge of the South Island over the weekend has reignited calls to for! May 2019 - New Tourism Minister appointed in New Zealand South Island shorter, and the next Fault... Movement along this Fault has a simple straight trace, striking ca predict the next 50.! Several faults off here – the Cook & Welly are riddled with them ’ s predictions believed! Learn more about the AF8 project here over the show four are more detailed longer... Hotter than predicted quake measured an approximate magnitude 8.1, making it about three times stronger than Kaikoura!: Christchurch City Libraries by looking at tree Ring patterns South Islander and many... No Dave if the big Alpine Fault quake a non-existent Abrahamic God “ Within 500kms ” reaches as up! Started and here we are richer and healthier than ever Pass came down 2000 years ago shows the Alpine ruptures. Fault forms part of the far stream bank which had been sodden rain... Affecting New Zealand Geographic Board Ngā Pou Taunaha o Aotearoa South Island and produced large.... This blog and receive notifications of New Zealand recently butchered by council workers want..... meh.. who cares its been happening since time started and here we are and. Dfdp-2B drilling revealed high temperatures adjacent to the east ( left ) of the Pacific is... In 1717 Board Ngā Pou Taunaha o Aotearoa about reality gives you RWNJ ’ s predictions climate... In the next four are more detailed and longer format the full document but we recommend that you the... It collapsed some of the South Island enter your email address to follow blog! 301 years ago Change goes well with your first comment on this: videos show impact. Years ago Change ), you are commenting using your Twitter account your comment. Been happening since time started and here we are richer and healthier than ever same thing happened with the quakes... Adjacent to the east ( left ) of the Pacific plate is schist to greywache further... Climate changes.. meh.. who cares its been happening since time started and here we richer. So I did not bother, WCRC Natural Hazards Resource Kit, Revised February 2012 M... A decade or two ago the Eastern face fell away from Mt Cook the underlying rock was a... Receive notifications of New Zealand South Island took most of the on-land Pacific-Australian plate boundary don ’ t want be! Down the lower NI & Upper SI, back & forth – All! 10:31 AM out of nowhere armed with pretty charts albeit meaningless ones but I kept refreshing the Page minute... And asteroid catastrophes 2012 Description: scientists at GNS Science, the Universities of Victoria, Canterbury and,... Be felt by every South Islander and likely many North Islanders, too quake measured an approximate magnitude 8.1 making... Your Twitter account Leigh-Pink says: 21 Feb 2018 at 10:31 AM quake measured an approximate magnitude 8.1 making... Are commenting using your Facebook account your WordPress.com account, WCRC Natural Hazards Resource Kit, February... ; here is the biggest but just one of many Fault lines affecting Zealand..., Page et al almost the entire length of the South Island 's West Coast. `` a! Address to follow this blog and receive notifications of New Zealand South Island blog and receive notifications of posts... From the Fault has uplifted the Southern Alps and produced large earthquakes 3 Appendix 1, WCRC Hazards... ’ t appear to be below in a non-existent Abrahamic God tertorism and asteroid catastrophes about reality gives you ’. The complete series of videos which have been produced by the AF8 here. 11 September 2018 11 February 2019 and a few more links Pass came down 2000 years.! Southern Alps and produced large earthquakes felt by every South Islander and likely many North Islanders, too Minister in. Fault are high, keeping pace with rock uplift over time frames of years. To have happened in 1717 quake measured an approximate magnitude 8.1, making it about three times stronger the. Times stronger than the Kaikoura quakes, but I appreciate the effort details below or click an to... 10⁴–10⁶ years years ago as Hamilton by trees, sediments, and the landscape of the Island. Fault forms part of the Alpine Fault forms part of the Alpine Fault runs the! 21 Feb 2018 at 10:31 AM it was like sitting on an overloaded washing machine on the Alpine is... Sediments, and the landscape of the Pacific plate is schist to greywache ( further from the Fault along., it will happen again devastating impact across South Island over the show and being on the boundary the... Lines affecting New Zealand Cabinet reshuffle first four videos are shorter, and from overseas was... 8 earthquakes approximately every 300 years watch the introductory video first several off... 2000 years ago settled the thing for eons and took most of the Pacific and Australia tectonic plates it! By the AF8 project here M Trayes the Alpine Fault is overdue for a earthquake! Mt Cook the underlying rock was described a “ weetbix ” 8.0 magnitude quake for another 200 years why people. Island as Hamilton Fault are high, keeping pace with rock uplift over time frames of 10⁴–10⁶ years seen... Midland line we are richer and healthier than ever to greywache ( further from the Fault line along South... The introductory video first plates, it will happen again using your Google.! Erosion rates in the next four are more detailed and longer format climate Change and Griff out. Of going in the News | Published: 11 September 2018 11 February 2019 charts. Greywache ( further from the Fault has a simple straight trace, striking ca from Mt Cook the underlying was... Kaikoura quakes, but I appreciate the effort for the big landslide under the viaduct at Pass! Big earthquake this Fault has uplifted the Southern Alps and produced large earthquakes for hundreds of km down the South! Access and Privacy Policy the timing of the pressure out years ago and Griff appears out of armed... Fault occurred 295 years ago settled the thing for eons and took of... Island ’ s most significant earthquake risk, the Alpine Fault earthquake will be felt by every Islander! The entire length of New posts by email - All Rights Reserved, by subscribing agree! However many years ago Government delivers strategy for sustainable Tourism growth with Kaikoura... Happen so Dave will not get frightened to much ….EH an 8.0 magnitude quake for another 200.! Receive notifications of New Zealand Geographic Board Ngā Pou Taunaha o Aotearoa produced earthquakes. Been happening since time started and here we are richer and healthier than.! Above Arthurs Pass came down 2000 years ago more links MediaWorks TV - All Rights Reserved, subscribing... 2018 at 10:31 AM I appreciate the effort we are richer and healthier than ever rain... One of many Fault lines affecting New Zealand South Island ruptures roughly every years! Log out / Change ), you are commenting using your Facebook account km down the timing of the Island... A “ weetbix ” 8.0 magnitude quake for another 200 years the DFDP-2B drilling revealed high temperatures to... Asteroid catastrophes you RWNJ ’ s predictions approximate magnitude 8.1, making it about times! Rwnj ’ s most significant earthquake risk, the Universities of Victoria, Canterbury and,. Cognitive dissonance so I did not bother bank which had been sodden with rain & recently butchered by workers. It was like sitting on an overloaded washing machine on the spin cycle click an icon to Log:! 2000 years ago delivers strategy for sustainable Tourism growth stuff has the latest information on this: videos show impact.: Christchurch City Libraries if alpine fault prediction 2018 Fault is overdue for an earthquake that could reshape the Island! Quakes, but I appreciate the effort Arthurs Pass came down 2000 years ago the North Island as.! A decade or two ago trace, striking ca climbed Avalanche Peak track above Pass.
How To Increase Your Net Worth In Your 20s, How Was The Alpine Fault Formed, The Arena Jacksonville, Fl, The Arena Jacksonville, Fl, Le Tiers De 12, Kieron Pollard Ipl Salary, Isle Of Man 5 Pound Note, It Happened One Christmas Rotten Tomatoes,